Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Sweet, Sweet Fantasy Baby

Week 5...... the following teams have byes: Oaktown, Bungles, Philly Cheesesteaks and Minny. Again collectively not a lot of startable players on these teams, wr’s and rb’s are what is going to be missed with these teams. I changed up my anaylsis this week, and added some postion specific talk, this will not happen every week so bear with the length.

When I looked at this week’s schedule I started with quarterback and I realized something: of the 28 qb’s starting this week there are only 5 that I would start without question. Brady, Romo, Peyton, Favre and Kitna(in that order)... Kitna barely makes it, depends on your scoring system if it’s standard 50 yrds=1 point then even his 400 yard game isn’t that good, but some leagues have 25 yrds=1 pnt, obviously a huge difference. So if your lucky enough to have 1 of those 5 then life is good, if not your probably looking at match-ups... who’s playing against the Lions, Browns, Rams or Bills... unfortunately Brady and Romo are playing against 2 of those teams.

Luckily in 3 of my leagues I have Romo... but in the other one I have Campbell, Delhomme, Greise (trying to drop for Anderson or Harrington). So this is worst scenario - not knowing who to start.

This week there’s a couple of match-ups where both qb’s playing are... questionable so:

Big Ben over Hasselbeck..... Ward may still be out but the Defense is what I’m looking at, Pittsburg is better and madder after last week than the Seahawks.
Eli over Pennington..... The NYJ offense is still working kinks out, which means that they can have a big game or they can put up a stinker, with the chance of Jacobs coming back I think Eli will have more options.
Jay Cutler over Rivers..... See the above note for Pennington, Denver also has Bailey and Bly ready to pick off Rivers...not good, unless he throws lots of screens to LT.
Brees over Panther qb.... Harrington beat them up pretty bad this past week and I don’t know maybe I just keep having hope that NO will turn it around and coming off the bye at home seems like a good time to do so. Whoever is playing for the Panthers will look to Steve Smith often and that’s never a bad thing but the question mark status is a signal to stay away.

NOTE: Of the above Hasselbeck and Pennigton are not sits, but they’re in the middle for sure. Also last week I’m fairly sure I was 10/10 on my qb’s.

Anderson vs The Patriots
.... I don’t need to explain this one.
Schaub vs Miami.... He may not have to throw the ball to win this game and if he does throw who is he throwing too ???

The 4 headed monster of Mcnair/Boller and Leinart/Warner are still sits, though the Cardinals do have a great match-up so both could end up with big games, so they are startable if you have one of those #2 qb’s with a bad match-up.

Now on to running backs, once the foundation of a strong fantasy team... this year that is not the case, there has been no stand out stud(s)... addai may be the only one. This year keeps getting worse for injuries... last week I gave a fairly long list, now add to that Westbrook, Maroney, Jordan, Henry, Addai and of course Caddy (gone for year). (And of course, I as your Editor and an 0-4 owner, had Cadillac - marking the 3rd straight year my #1 running back has gone down with a season ending knee injury... I'm beginning to think this is all my fault)

Running backs are flying off the waivers, teams are scrambling, unless you handcuffed and saw the need last week to add Buckhalter and Morris to your team. I actually had Morris starting in my one league, not even knowing Maroney was out, I also had him on my start’em list for rb, so don’t say you weren't told. If your grabbing one of these #2 guys get one that will get goaline carries... it’s easy to find out go to a play by play recap and on these teams that have the injured running back, who is getting the ball inside the 20?? One running back that I think is still available in almost all leagues...Selvin Young... If I had room on my rosters he would be there, Henry’s knees are a problem already and it’s only week 5. Otherwise Pittman, Leonard, Morris, Buckhalter and KK (Kenton) are all decent pick-ups this week, Pittman having the most upside down the road.

Reggie Bush vs Panthers
... see my Brees comment, i think they’ll come out strong this week
Ronnie Brown vs Houston... He faces a tough run defense this week but it’s obvious that he’s the guy the offense will go through this year. Look at carries for chatman in the first 2 games vs the last 2 games... time for ronnie to get off the bench.
Dayne,Green vs Miami... I don’t know who’s starting because it’s only wed, but whoever is the starter is a must start agaisnt a horrible miami Def.
Edge vs Rams... An easier match-up for the edge, hopefully he gets back to numbers he put up at the beginning of the year.

Lewis vs Patriots
... I had him as a starter last week vs the Ravens {70yrds, 1 TD was actually 6th best rb last week} but this week you should have him on the bench
Alexander vs Pitts... He’s been a disappointment for the most part, definitely not #1 back status yet, last week he only had 80 yds rushing and this week he’s up against a tough Def.
Benson vs GB... I actually had this guy as like a top 15 back before the season stared luckily other people saw him as a good rb too cause i never got the chance to take him. Last week should have been a coming out party, 1st time qb, lions Def. Yet he did nothing...very disappointing.
Magahee vs SF... I love watching Willis play, I guess I should point out which one..Patrick.. SF has a decent Def, they held Seattle for most of the game, which had a starting field postion avg. of like the 50.

Wide Receivers oh how I loathe thee.... Last year the gap between the #1 wr and the #15 wr was a mere 30 some points so basically 2 points per game which is why wr’s are usually not sought after in the early rounds. This year though wr’s are winning games for their teams. Moss, Owens, TJ, Plaixco, Braylon... If you have one of these guys you're happy. Right now Plaxico is #2 wr with 50 points, the number #15 brandon Marshall is at 27 points [Moss is just to far ahead ruins everything]. That is an average of over 5 points per game difference...which is huge.

I wish I could predict the top wr’s for a given week. Last week I had Patrick Crayton [27 points] on the bench so I could start Ronald curry [0 points]....not happy about that but that is the problem with wr’s any given day can be a breakout, 2 weeks ago it was Curtis, this week Crayton, prior to these weeks these wr’s did nothing. For the people who picked up Curtis, how happy are you about starting him last week ??? (I assume that was directed at me, so let me tell you... not very)

Then you look at your top wr’s last week... Owens [1], smith [1], Ocho cinco [2], harrison [0]..... my only advice have just enough wrs so that way you never have to decide between who to start and sit.

Anyway I’ll try and figure the hot guys this week...

Santonio Holmes vs Seattle
... Ward could be out again, but even if he does play expect big things from Holmes
Dwayne Bowe vs Jags... Finally KC has a receiver not named Kennison... he’s big, quick and the only wr that Huard has to throw too, a bit worried about the match-up but he should produce.
Brandon Marshall vs Chargers... I was unaware of this guy until he was offered in a trade [Derrick Ward for Marshall], this guy has been Mr. Consistent even when Javon is playing. Him playing against the Chargers seemingly weak Def. is only a plus.
Patrick Crayton vs Bills... Ok so last week I hesitantly put Curtis on this list and was burned for it. The difference here is Crayton has a proven qb to throw to him as well the Bills Def has been decimated with injuries this year.
Fitz/Boldin vs Rams... If Boldin isn’t playing and you need help pick up Bryant Johnson, I hate the shuffling qb thing but against the Rams any cardinal should start.

Holt/Bruce vs Arizona
... Ferotte has been named the starter, which could be good news. Gus the chimney sweep has the possibility of putting up big numbers, but as i’m a betting man I have my money on him being a dud this week against a strong secondary.
D-Jack vs Baltimore... This could be Darrell’s breakout game since he has yet to do anything and Baltimore is looking shaky, however with a new qb... you cant have any faith in him now.
Vincent Jackson vs Denver... San Diego is in trouble and after they lose this week maybe there will be changes and this wr will have a chance to show his stuff but sit him until then.

Then there are the Sleepers, which I’ve done great at calling thus far

Trent Edwards vs Dallas... Bad match-up but this guy did alright last week, he found the invisible Lee Evans, who if you remember was on this sleeper list last week. At one point I think he was 13/14 so I look for him to put up some decent numbers this week.
Leon Washington vs the Giants... No real reason, maybe.... to counter a strong pass rush, you throw screens and it will be Leon not Jones who will be benefiting from that.
Colston vs Carolina... He’s probably starting in most leagues despite not doing anything this year but once again I see a breakout game for the Saints.

This week I’ll leave a disclaimer:
For those that aren’t in the league you may want to know that I’m the 12th rated coach in a 12 man league. (I'm #11) I don’t agree with that ranking since I have the #1 def, #2 passing, #2 rushing and #4 receiving corps. The problem is I leave a lot of points on the bench (damn you Ronnie Brown). Even though I’m seemingly the worst coach I’m 1st place in my division (it is a week division but still 1st is 1st)

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