Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - An Exremely Early and Extremely Misguided NFL Prediction

Things occur to me from time to time. Like, I really enjoy milk. Or, making the bed is stupid.

Recently it occurred to me that the NFL team I cheer for, the Kansas City Chiefs, are potentially the worst team in the league. What am I basing this on? How about the fact that on the Official Kansas City Chiefs Store there are 4 (FOUR!) replica jerseys for sale. And three of those players haven't even played a game for Kansas City yet - Matt Cassel, Mike Vrabel and Tyson Jackson.

When I first saw this yesterday I was outraged by the low jersey total, but then I actually though about it - whose jersey from this team would you actually want? Larry Johnson is the only name missing from that list who could actually sell some jerseys.

Ok, so Kansas City is probably going to be terrible and they have almost no players whose jersey you'd want to wear. Fine, I can live with. But certainly Kansas City can't have the lowest number of jerseys for sale, can they? Surely there must be another team more miserable and worse off.

No, no there's not. Trust me, I looked into it.

Because I was curious as to what other teams had for sale I decided to look into it and check out all 32 teams. But before I share the results, here are a few ground rules I used in my not-so-scientific study:

- The jersey type I used for calculating the totals for each team were Home Replica jerseys, because they are the most common and what kind of jagoff pays 250 bucks for an authentic jersey?

- Only the home jerseys were counted, no aways, throwbacks or alternates.

- Only the jerseys of players currently on the team were counted, with two exceptions - Sean Taylor and Pat Tillman.

- The jersey totals were taken from each team's official store website. The official NFL.com store was not used.

And here are the winners and loser (by team and number of applicable jerseys for sale):

1.(tie) New England Patriots - 19
1.(tie) Pittsburgh Steelers - 19
These two are not really surprising - tons of recent success, superstar players, fans who think the Earth revolves around their team
3. Washington Redskins - 16
Washington scores high on the fan-arrogance scale, but not so much in recent success category
4.(tie) Indianapolis Colts - 15
4.(tie) Buffalo Bills - 15
4.(tie) Green Bay Packers - 15
Ok, Indy I understand - what with their decade of success, at least in the regular season. But Buffalo? What the crap is going on there? And no, 14 of those jerseys do not have the name Owens on the back. And Green Bay just seems to be selling jerseys for their whole team - including the kicker
7. Carolina Panthers - 14
That seems a little high, doesn't it? I can't imagine there's too much call for Dwyane Jarrett jerseys.
8. New York Jets - 13
9.(tie) Philadelphia Eagles - 12
9.(tie) Baltimore Ravens - 12
Those ones seem about right to me.
11.(tie) San Francisco 49ers - 11
11.(tie) Detroit Lions - 11
San Francisco seems fine, but Detroit? C'mon! Somebody's got delusions of grandeur. Let's face it, people in Detroit are worried about finding couches to burn for warmth, not buying Larry Foote jerseys.
13.(tie) Chicago Bears - 10
13.(tie) Atlanta Falcons - 10
13.(tie) Cleveland Browns - 10
13.(tie) Tennessee Titans - 10
13.(tie) San Diego Chargers - 10
I would have thought the Charges would have had more for sale. And I think the Cleveland total will be dropping to 9 soon, as I can't imagine they're going to sell the Donte Stallworth jersey for much longer. Also, I can't even name 10 Tennessee Titans - what's going on there?
18.(tie) New York Giants - 9
18.(tie) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 9
18.(tie) Seattle Seahawks - 9
18.(tie) Cincinnati Bengals - 9
18.(tie) Oakland Raiders - 9
Seems like the Giants should have more, at least double digits. Cincinnati wins the award for the most poorly designed website in the league - not surprising if you've ever read this site. I'm serious it took me quite awhile to find the jersey selection - not a good business plan to confuse and enrage your customers.
23.(tie) Dallas Cowboys - 8
23.(tie) Minnesota Vikings - 8
23.(tie) Arizona Cardinals - 8
I'm shocked that the Cowboys fell this far. I suppose they don't have the star power they used to but this was surprising to me. Arizona and Minnesota being down here was not surprising to me. And Minnesota will have another one to add as soon as the corpse of Brett Favre signs with them
26. Jacksonville Jaguars - 7
Can you name 7 Jacksonville Jaguars? I can't and I just looked at their website.
27. Miami Dolphins - 6
Sure.
28.(tie) New Orleans Saints - 5
28.(tie) St. Louis Rams - 5
28.(tie) Houston Texans - 5
28.(tie) Denver Broncos - 5
Hmmm, seems like these teams have something in common - not much success lately.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - 4
Somebody pass me a tissue.

So what should we learn from all this?

First, I have too much time on my hands.

Second, and more important, I think these numbers can be used to predict the future. From what I can tell, the outcomes look a lot like the divisional standings will at the end of the year. By most jerseys available by division, the teams break down like this:

NFC East
Washington
Philly
NY Giants
Dallas

NFC North
Green Bay
Detroit
Chicago
Minnesota

NFC South
Carolina
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
New Orleans

NFC West
San Francisco
Seattle
Arizona
St. Louis

AFC East
New England
Buffalo
NY Jets
Miami

AFC North
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Cleveland
Cincinnati

AFC South
Indianapolis
Tennessee
Jacksonville
Houston

AFC West
San Diego
Oakland
Denver
Kansas City

I think that all looks pretty good to me - Detroit might be a stretch, but who knows. I'll have to compare this list to the final standings at season's end. And you know what the Chiefs at the bottom means - Kansas City with the #1 overall pick in the draft next year, baby!

The Curious Case of Collusion in Kansas City

First, let me say that I am in no way implying, insinuating, hinting, alluding, or nudge-nudge wink-winking that there was any actual collusion involved in Kansas City's weekend wheelings and dealings; because I have neither the proof nor the legal team to back up such an accusation.

I just think alliteration can be mildly humourous from time to time. Very mildly.

When you cheer for the Kansas City Chiefs, it's not often that your team is the talk of the NFL and mainstream media - unless it's something like, "Can you believe they actually won 2 games?" It's like cheering for St. Louis, except with fewer Super Bowl wins in the past 39 years.

But now Kansas City is in the spotlight for something positive, or at least positive at first glance. Or positive in theory. Or something. Sorry, I'm not really used to this sort of thing... pos-i-tive?

In any case, you may or may not have heard that the Kansas City Chiefs have acquired Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel from the New England Patriots for... a 2nd round pick. You are reading that correctly. Did I mention that Kansas City's GM worked for New England until about a month ago?

At first glance this seems like a total fleecing. The Chiefs are getting an 11 win quarterback and a Pro Bowl linebacker with 3 Super Bowl rings in exchange for a 2nd rounder. However, this is New England and Bill Belichick we're talking about - they don't get fleeced on anything.

First of all, Matt Cassel has played 15 meaningful football games since highschool - winning 11 of them last year with New England. Not to overstate my own athletic prowess, but I'm pretty sure that given the opportunity I could win 11 games for New England. I'm not ready just yet to label Cassell as a "system quarterback" but I'm not ready to herald him as the second coming of Len Dawson either. Is he going to be better than Tyler Thigpen for the Chiefs? Probably.

Secondly, Mike Vrabel will be 34 when the season starts and is clearly on the downside of his career. He's a pass rushing linebacker who had 4 sacks last year. He will provide a sorely needed lockeroom presence though.

Why am I immediately pointing out the flaws of these two players? Well, A) you obviously don't know me very well and B) the Chiefs didn't just get Tom Brady and Jerrod Mayo, they got a career backup and a 34-year old. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a good deal for the Chiefs. I just don't think there were any shady dealings going on between the USS Scott Pioli and his former team, as some people on the Internets are claiming. There are reports that Denver and Tampa offered much, much more for Cassel but accepted Kansas City's lesser offer. From what I've read, those other offers just came to late - after a deal with KC was already done.

The best part of this deal for Kansas City fans might be the fact that Jay Cutler is pouting and Denver might be imploding before the season even starts.

There were plenty of other free agent signings and trades over the past few days, but I just don't have time to make fun of them all. With a little luck and a lot of schedule coordination we'll have another podcast up later this week or early next week discussing all the goings on the in the NFL.

Speaking of podcasts, we are now up and running on iTunes. If for some reason you'd like to listen to it on iTunes, simply access the iTunes Store and type From Rags to Rags into the search window and we're the first podcast listed. Then click Subscribe to download new episodes automatically.

Trebor Does Dallas

Not to be outdone by my shameless homerism, Trebor stops by today to discuss the current state of the Dallas Cowboys and their plans for the future. Here's his take:

My fellow [Cowboy Fans]: I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust [Jerry has bestowed upon me], that we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our [fans are at war with a blonde singer/actress with a big mouth and huge jugs]. Our [Offense is badly weakened, a consequence of having too much talent and greed and irresponsibility on the part of some] but also our [special teams are far from special a collective failure to make tackles and not take stupid penalties.]

Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real, they are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this [Cowboy Fans]: They will be met. [We will win a playoff game before the Lions].

This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, [popular team in America]. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing by and doing just enough, [settling for mediocrity] and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed.

Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking [The Cowboys].

All this we can do. All this we will do.

-----------------------------------

This is what I dreamed of, and it wasn’t Wade Phillips delivering this speech but rather an unknown shadowy figure that has yet to been revealed. May not agree with his stimulus plan (308 billion in discretionary spending??) but Obama knows how to talk.

I got to listen to the event live as I was recovering from surgery that day and besides the thought of where is the Obama equivalent in Canada (none of the leaders here inspire anything [Ed. Note - Truer words were never spoken]), was imagine him as a coach and the inspiration he could give players. You hear stories of some of the great coaches and their half time talks, or lack there of (leaving the Superbowl ring on the table and walking out...awesome). I see Wade and can’t help to compare him to George, stammering his way through sentences, making up sayings that don’t make sense and doing a little laugh.

Anyway this big topic is what’s going to happen with Terrell Owens. Should he be cut, traded. To both I say no, he is a distraction and I’m sure his new TV show isn’t going to help things but he’s still got the skills and will remain a threat.

If Jerry is looking at that option, it’s a tough one, because what team would take him. What would you get a 1st round and 3rd round pick ?? Then there’s probably a select few who would actually want the ego in their locker room. Maybe Al Davis wants another shot at an elite wideout. If you can’t trade him you can't cut him. He’s also too good to just let go so keep him for another year, plus I believe by cutting the salary cap would take a hit for what is owed to him.

The Owens/Williams/Witten line could work and could be great. Though not as great as what Jerry thought, because he paid way to much for Roy. And put the team in a bad position for 2009. With Housh likely available that would have been a far better pick.

What the Cowboys need is to get rid of Wade. Sure Jerry said the coaching staff is in place but he quickly went back on that getting rid of the defensive coach and the special teams coach, so why not Wade. With the defensive coach it was Wade’s forte, he wanted a bigger part and too many cooks in the kitchen your left with giving up 44 points in a must win game.

Moving Wade down to defensive coordinator would be great, but would never happen. It’s like a job, if you get demoted you're looking for another job. The demotion itself may not be bad, but going to work with the same guys in that lesser role is tough. So either he’s head coach or gone fishin'. Which would mean only having Garrett stay on with the team.

Promote Garrett??? No, I’m not overly impressed with what he’s done on offense considering the talent that has been given to him. There lacks a certain creativity in his play calling, I’m no Madden extraordinaire but even I could do a good job of calling what play the Cowboys are going to run and I’m not that smart.

Shanahan is out there and originally I was thinking that he would be what the team needs. A no nonsense coach, be able to give the team some leadership. He would have a big back to work with and 2 good back-up options, which would be hell for fantasy owners, but he wouldn’t be changing much in the run first philosophy. The problem might be is that Denver was a zone blocking team, with small o-lineman, Dallas doesn’t have a small O-line. It may not be a big issue considering the talent in the backfield, but I think it’s a pipe dream to get Mike in Dallas, unless he’s still out there in November. If Dallas falters out of the gate I don’t see Wade lasting long.

I think where Dallas needs to improve is on Defense. There are some options out there that may work for them. First of all get a safety, Roy Williams aka Mr. horse-collar, isn’t an option anymore at safety. He’s paid right now like an elite safety which he is not, maybe in a different scheme he can flourish, but not in the 3-4, he’s said so himself. Not sure what I do with my Williams jersey if he’s gone, but there are a lot of safeties out there that could help.

Look at free agents out there. Dawkins is another pipe dream, because he’s likely staying in Philly. Landry might be an option because Baltimore has a lot of UFA’s- Ray Lewis (talk about later), Bart Scott and Terrell Suggs (Ed. Note - Suggs franchised today). Dallas could swoop in and pick up Landry with the attention that will be given to the big 3. Jermaine Philips is an option but I’d much rather see Sean Jones from the Browns. They play the same 3-4 so he would fit in and he can get the int’s, plus he’s young and cheaper than Landry.

As mentioned Ray Lewis is a free agent, and I don’t see him leaving Baltimore. He’s said there will be no home team discount but he’s the face of that team, and maybe it’s time to change that but he’s still a top performer. Maybe he’ll go to the Jets, follow Rex, kinda like Lloyd and Gordon… maybe a place not on the radar.

Since he’s a big name of course Dallas is going to be mentioned. I thought about that right away, since Dallas needs a veteran in there to straighten things up. When TO got traded to Philly, Baltimore was in the mix and I thought he was going to end up there, but then that trade was voided and there was a big mess. At the time though TO didn’t make any friends in Baltimore and has since disrespected Lewis a few times, so it would be interesting. Would I want to see Ray in Dallas… yes and no.

I’ve always liked Ray ever since he beat that murder thing, the problem is where does he play in Dallas? He’s not quick enough to follow the speedy rb’s, you can’t have him covering TE’s. Do you move Brady James over? Can’t really let old man Thomas do that. It would be tough to find a position for him and likely can’t afford him with only 10 million in cap space. If you want a Raven, go after Landry or the newly available McAlister, though there may be issues with his health, he could be a great bargain.

Can’t mention Dallas without mentioning Romo. I like this guy, I think he’s had some bad luck and a lot is thrown on his shoulders. Everyone expects him to be Aikman and that’s not going to happen. The one fault that can be seen is his nonchalant attitude, he’s not devastated enough after a loss for fans. But he’s the starter and one of the better qb’s in the league, what Dallas needs is a qb that can step in when Romo is hurt or thinking of jess (thinking, "damm what happened"), instead of the game.

..........Jess Then......................Jess Now...........

Brad was supposed to be able to step in since he knows the system but they let him go. I’m not sure who’s out there to pick up. Chris Simms may be the only affordable choice, Leftwich may be looking but Dallas needs a qb that’s quick on his feet until the O-line blocks better and that’s not Leftwich.

In the end with the draft coming up and them with the 51st pick, they may get some talent there but nothing to help in the short term. Between the draft and the free agents, I would like to see them improve in the following priority: safety, offensive tackle (to replace Flozell), backup qb, linebacker, cornerback.

Maybe this will be the year, I’m sure they will be one of the favorites again and hopefully they win a playoff game, it’s been way to long.

It's Officially Official

(Photo: KCStar.com)

The fact that former Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley would be the new Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs was both the best kept and worst kept secret in the world of us Chiefs' fans.

It was the best kept because there was an NSA-like secrecy surrounding the whole process. So much so that nobody really knew if there was a process going on. We didn't know who had been interviewed, who hadn't or if anybody had been.

It was also the worst kept secret because who else were they going to hire? All the sought-after coordinators were already snapped up. Shanahan and Gruden were terrible fits for the Chiefs team. And it seemed nothing could get Bill Cowher out of retirement this year. So who else was it going to be except Haley?

Personally, I think it's a good hire. He seems to have the fire and willingness to hold players accountable that's been sorely lacking during the reign of Herm Edwards. How can we really know how this is going to work though - we can't. Haley has only had two years as a coordinator. Before that he'd had various other positions - I'm much too lazy to actually look them up. I believe wide receivers coach and positions in the player personnel department were among them. But he's young and seems to have the desire to win and that's really all I can ask.

I would rate my mood as cautiously optimistic. Remember, even Bill Belichick was a colossal failure in his first stint as a head coach.

Now all that's left to do is sign Julius Peppers, draft Aaron Curry and get to work.

On a related note - does Scott Pioli have the worst head-to-torso ratio of all time? (He's on the left in the above photo). I was watching the press conference at lunch and he looks like a Dick Tracy villain.

The Audacity of Hope: A 47-Point Plan to Rebuild the Kansas City Chiefs

“Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking [the Kansas City Chiefs]” – Barack Obama - January 20, 2009

Ok, he may or may not have actually said those exact words – but if he can misquote George Washington/Thomas Paine, I can misquote him.

Hope is a funny thing. If you’re a paranoid pessimist like me, even the slightest feelings of hope are generally followed by a laundry list of thoughts why that hope is unwarranted and sure to end in disaster. However, when your football team has its first new General Manager in 20 years, is poised to get itself a new coach and has the #3 overall draft pick, it’s tough even for me to be anything but hopeful for the upcoming NFL season. It’s a clean slate and a chance to start over with fresh minds and personnel. And can we win?


So here today I present to you my 47-Point Plan to Rebuild the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s unsolicited, totally misguided, and not too far above the worst message-board ramblings. I know you don’t care, but there are two weeks until the next NFL game, whaddya want from me?

1. Fire/Hire a Head Coach. Or Don’t. But Do Something Already.

Herm Edwards is hanging out to dry. The majority of the sought-after coordinators have been hired. A week is not enough time for me to be already doubting Scott Pioli, but throw us a bone – anything. Truth be told, Steve Spagnoulo is the guy I really wanted to see as the next head coach of the Chiefs, but he’s off the board now and in St. Louis. Jon Gruden is suddenly unemployed, but I swear to you right now – if Gruden is hired by the Chiefs I will retire my allegiance to them, at least for the time that Gruden is with the team. I suspect I would reconsider if that were actually to happen – but it won’t. The hot rumour right now is that Todd Haley, the offensive coordinator of the Cardinals is going to be the guy the Chiefs want. I think I would be fine with that, it would be nice to have someone with a little more experience but it seems like Haley would make a good head coach – and a guy’s gotta start somewhere. This would explain the delay, as the Chiefs couldn’t talk to Haley until after the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, three Chiefs’ assistant coaches, including their defensive coordinator have already jumped ship – which to me means that change is imminent. But with every passing day that the Herm is still in charge, it makes me more and more afraid that he’ll be patrolling the sidelines next year – wasting time outs and not really knowing where he is.

Here’s something really interesting – and at the moment is only the rumour of a rumour – but if it’s got any legs at all, could become really, really interesting. As of Tuesday’s official sale of the Miami Dolphins, Executive Vice President of Football Operations, Bill Parcells has a 30 day (I think) out-clause in his contract that would let him leave the Dolphins and still get paid. But do you know who Bill Parcells’ son-in-law is? That’s right, new Chiefs’ GM Scott Pioli. I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.

In any case, can we please just have a coach already? The Senior Bowl is on Saturday and it would have been nice to have some permanent staff there to scout the talent.
[Thursday Morning Update: ProFootballTalk is "reporting" that Herm getting canned is happening sooner, rather than later - and the new rumour is that Mike Shanahan is going to be the next head coach. That sound you hear is me trying to swallow my own tongue.]

2. Trade Tony Gonzalez

Don’t laugh – I’m serious. Yes he’s the only viable pass-catcher the Chiefs have but it’s time for him to go - especially if the Chiefs can sell high on him after his big season. And they don’t have a viable quarterback anyway, so what does it matter? From his demand to be traded (and then not) to his demand that Tyler Thigpen be the quarterback next season, it’s time. This is a rebuilding team whether Gonzalez wants to admit it or not, so why not get rid of people who don’t want to be a part of the program and get something in return? So here’s my plan – trade Gonzalez to the New York Giants. It seems the Giants are in need of someone to catch the ball and Gonzalez probably has a few good years left in the tank. I think a reasonable return would be a 2nd or 3rd round pick – the Giants 2nd rounder would be the 58th pick overall, so it’s almost a 3rd rounder. But maybe you can get a 3 and a 7 or something like that. I have no idea if the Giants have the cap room or even the draft picks to make that happen, or whether they have any interest. But this makes sense to me and that’s all I’m really concerned with. All I know is Tony needs to go before it becomes a locker room-dividing situation.


3. Trade Larry Johnson

This is a no-brainer. Worn out his welcome doesn’t even begin to describe this situation. I don’t think there are many women in the great Kansas City area that Larry hasn’t physically abused or spat liquour in the face of, so it’s time to move on to greener pastures.

But do you know where Larry is going? I’m pretty sure I do. He’s going to be a Patriot next season. I have no proof to back this up, other than the following conjecture:
a) Scott Pioli obviously has a relationship with the Patriots organization,
b) The Patriots are in need of a running back who isn’t Laurence Mauroney
c) The Pats have a history of taking in troubled players and turning them into team-first guys, i.e: Corey Dillon and Randy Moss

The problem is, I don’t think you can get very much for Johnson. I’m sure he has a huge contract. He also has his off-field issues and a history of getting injured, especially in recent years. Realistically it might be another Randy Moss situation; the Patriots giving up a 4th round pick to take a player off another team’s hands.


4. – 47. Draft Smart (Oh please, please, please draft smart)

I don’t think I’m overstating anything when I say the 3rd overall pick in this year’s NFL draft is the most important moment in the history of the Chiefs’ franchise. Draft well and it could lay the foundation for many successful years ahead. Draft poorly… and well, does the name Alex Smith ring any bells? San Francisco still hasn’t recovered from that pick 4 years ago (albeit not a great draft year, but DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman went 11th and 12th, respectively). I must say, I have total confidence in the man who helped lay the foundation for the Patriots’ dynasty to make the right decision in Kansas City.

First of all, if Detroit takes Matthew Stafford #1 overall, which they are almost surely to, DO NOT Kansas City, I repeat – DO NOT take Mark Sanchez at number three. This might be the worst quarterback crop ever so it’s not worth taking the risk on a guy who started one year at USC with the 3 pick. I’d be much more content to take a chance on Graham Harrell, Rhett Bomar or Nate Davis (or someone) in the later rounds. If Detroit doesn’t take Stafford, St. Louis won’t either which means he falls to Kansas City – and in that case they have a tough choice; take Stafford and hope he pans out or pass go with a later round guy and maybe shoot for one of the Big 3 next year (Bradford, McCoy or Tebow). In the event Stafford falls to 3, I think Kansas City should pass (no pun intended) on him, and let me tell you why.

Kansas City’s defence was historically bad this season – setting the record for fewest sacks in a 16-game season, with 10 – yeah 10. This year there are a lot – a lot – of great defensive players available at the top of the draft and I think that’s where KC needs to get a lot better… now. I think the decision comes down to one of two players: Rey Maualuga or Brian Orakpo. The obvious answer would be Orakpo, a defensive end who can get to the quarterback – something the Chiefs sorely lack. But honestly I think the Chiefs should take Maualuga, a middle linebacker. A competent middle linebacker would allow the Chiefs to change the way they use last year’s number one pick, Glenn Dorsey, and hopefully get a little more out of him this year (anything out of him would be a step in the right direction).

Honestly, I just can’t wait for the draft – other than opening day, it might be my favorite day of the year. And having another top 5 pick this year makes it that much more exciting for me. It’s like getting 7 extra Christmas presents in April.


Alright, that concludes my self-involved ramblings for today – but don’t worry, I’m sure there will be plenty more to come.