Thursday, August 13, 2009

Sweet, Sweet Fantasy Baby: Mock Me If You Will

Hey kids, it's fantasy football season again - and you know what that means... Trebor is back to tell what and what not to do with your fantasy team... mostly what not to do. It's that Sweet, Sweet Fantasy Baby. And we're off!



Well it’s been a sad time here since the last post, no longer can I post pictures of these two:





















Sadly, they can no longer be loosely tied to the Cowboys or Saints. The only other celebrity couple I can think of in football is:






















(Favre photo via With Leather)

On the Favre note I think Sage will do fine, though come Nov. 1st maybe he finds himself out of a job which is not what you want from a starting qb. Also taking a hit is Percy Harvin, I still think he’s the rookie wr that will do the best this year especially with his involvement in special teams and the Wildcat, but having Favre would have helped him out.

Anyway back to the main point, it’s August and this month is the start of the preseason. More importantly though, basements are being cleaned up, nights are being scheduled, wives are trying to spend the last little bit of quality time with their husband… NFL and fantasy leagues are upon us. Sure you could be involved in a league that’s already drafted but I think that’s just silly.

Last time I shared the one man draft, which has changed considerably. Since then I’ve started poking my head into some of these fantasy sites, looking at headlines and rankings. The biggest thing I’ve done though is this past weekend while the wife and kid were away I tried some mock drafts (Yahoo, ESPN). They have different settings but you can easily do more than 1 at a time.
The idea is just to create the best team, ignoring positional trends and just drafting with a strategy in mind. The big thing is to look at the results of the draft and see where players are falling. A ranking sheet at NFL.com is great but when you’re in a draft with other people, you may notice that people aren’t willing to take a risk on a player, or think highly of another. When you go through 4-5 mock drafts and see Westbrook fall to the 3rd round 3 times, or Portis go late in the 2nd. It gets you thinking why are these 11 other guys not interested in these guys. You’ll also see players going ahead of their rankings, last year it was Chris Johnson, who I never even heard of until he kept popping up in the mid rounds of mock drafts.

The problem comes when people leave the draft and don’t select autodraft. Yahoo is really bad for people leaving. A mock draft should take like 20-30 min and again since you're not interested in trends you can make your pick walk away and come back. Having autodrafted teams can also be a problem but every time I’ve been a part of an online draft there’s always 1-2 guys who can’t make it and autodraft. As long as it’s not more then half the players on autodraft then it should be fine.

The first one I did I ignored a cardinal rule, I didn’t look at the rules. It was Yahoo and I should know that their team settings are different than I’m used to; 3WR, 2RB, 1 Flex. I realized my error after picking up 2 top rb’s and watched as others loaded up on wr’s. By the time it got to my pick in the 3rd round I was looking at a top wr of Santana Moss. I had great rb’s but when you start that many wr’s you need to get a top one.

The ESPN draft posted below was probably the best, in terms of autodraft and people not making stupid picks… ie Sproules in the 2nd round. Some notes on the rounds:

Round: 1
(1) Team Donaldson - Maurice Jones-Drew RB
** (2) Team Davidson - Adrian Peterson RB
(3) Team Amick - Matt Forte RB
(4) The Dudes - Michael Turner RB
(5) Team Hesseltine - Larry Fitzgerald WR
(6) Team Schellbach - Drew Brees QB
(7) Team dixon - DeAngelo Williams RB
(8) Team Lebowski - Chris Johnson RB
(9) Buck Futt - Steven Jackson RB
(10) Team Zielinski - Randy Moss WR
(11) Team mcinnis - Tom Brady QB
(12) Team Burns - LaDainian Tomlinson RB
1st- AP with the 2nd pick isn’t bad, the closer I get the season the more and more I like forte though. We’ll see after some preseason. Question mark pick (???) Randy Moss in 1st round

Round: 2
(13) Team Burns - Frank Gore RB
(14) Team mcinnis - Brandon Jacobs RB
(15) Team Zielinski - Steve Slaton RB
(16) Buck Futt - Brian Westbrook RB
(17) Team Lebowski - Andre Johnson WR
(18) Team dixon - Anquan Boldin WR
(19) Team Schellbach - Clinton Portis RB
(20) Team Hesseltine - Kevin Smith RB
(21) The Dudes - Calvin Johnson WR
(22) Team Amick - Steve Smith WR
** (23) Team Davidson - Marion Barber RB
(24) Team Donaldson - Greg Jennings WR
2nd – Marian the Barbarian. I really wanted either Wayne or Jennings for WR, since I was at the 2 spot I thought one would be available in the 3rd. I was wrong. Anyway when I did my one man mock I had Barber as a 1st round selection and not in any draft has he gone that high, sometimes going as late as the 3rd round and this makes no sense to me. Yes Dallas will be a committee back field but Barber had his best years when Jones was running between the 20’s. ??? pick: Boldin over Calvin... bit of a reach

Round: 3
(25) Team Donaldson - Reggie Wayne WR
** (26) Team Davidson - Roddy White WR
(27) Team Amick - Ronnie Brown RB
(28) The Dudes - Peyton Manning QB
(29) Team Hesseltine - Thomas Jones RB
(30) Team Schellbach - Terrell Owens WR
(31) Team dixon - Jonathan Stewart RB
(32) Team Lebowski - Philip Rivers QB
(33) Buck Futt - Marques Colston WR
(34) Team Zielinski - Darren McFadden RB
(35) Team mcinnis - Ryan Grant RB
(36) Team Burns - Marshawn Lynch RB
3rd – A good pickup but I see a big dropoff between Wayne/Jennings and Roddy. ??? pick: most of the rb’s... Jones is too early, Stewart too early, even if McFadden is a starter could have picked up a better wr and he’d still probably be on the board

Round: 4
(37) Team Burns - Dwayne Bowe WR
(38) Team mcinnis - Tony Gonzalez TE
(39) Team Zielinski - DeSean Jackson WR
(40) Buck Futt - Jason Witten TE
(41) Team Lebowski - Pierre Thomas RB
(42) Team dixon - T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
(43) Team Schellbach - Wes Welker WR
(44) Team Hesseltine - Kurt Warner QB
(45) The Dudes - Roy E. Williams WR
(46) Team Amick - Brandon Marshall WR
** (47) Team Davidson - Aaron Rodgers QB
(48) Team Donaldson - Knowshon Moreno RB
4th – I don’t like taking qb’s this early, but having 2 solid RB’s and the next 4-5 wr’s were of the same caliber, so I reached a bit. ??? pick: way to high for Desean.

Round: 5
(49) Team Donaldson - Vincent Jackson WR
** (50) Team Davidson - Braylon Edwards WR
(51) Team Amick - Donovan McNabb QB
(52) The Dudes - Antonio Gates TE
(53) Team Hesseltine - Derrick Ward RB
(54) Team Schellbach - Joseph Addai RB
(55) Team dixon - Reggie Bush RB
(56) Team Lebowski - Larry Johnson RB
(57) Buck Futt - Tony Romo QB
(58) Team Zielinski - Willie Parker RB
(59) Team mcinnis - Chad Ochocinco WR
(60) Team Burns - Matt Ryan QB
5th – If he can learn to catch, steal of the draft. ??? pick: none

Round: 6
(61) Team Burns - Antonio Bryant WR
(62) Team mcinnis - LenDale White RB
(63) Team Zielinski - Dallas Clark TE
(64) Buck Futt - Santonio Holmes WR
(65) Team Lebowski - Jay Cutler QB
(66) Team dixon - John Carlson TE
(67) Team Schellbach - Lee Evans WR
(68) Team Hesseltine - Hines Ward WR
(69) The Dudes - Cedric Benson RB
(70) Team Amick - Owen Daniels TE
** (71) Team Davidson - Ray Rice RB
(72) Team Donaldson - Matt Schaub QB
6th- If this were a real draft I would likely take Felix, just so I’d have the Dallas backfield no matter what, however getting Rice who is projected to start for the team that runs the most is a great value pick. ??? pick: Carlson before Daniels or Cooley or Olsen,

Round: 7
(73) Team Donaldson - Eddie Royal WR
** (74) Team Davidson - Anthony Gonzalez WR
(75) Team Amick - Jamal Lewis RB
(76) The Dudes - Bernard Berrian WR
(77) Team Hesseltine - Chris Cooley TE
(78) Team Schellbach - Ahmad Bradshaw RB
(79) Team dixon - Felix Jones RB
(80) Team Lebowski - Greg Olsen TE
(81) Buck Futt - Steelers D/ST D/ST
(82) Team Zielinski - Matt Cassel QB
(83) Team mcinnis - Donald Brown RB
(84) Team Burns - Santana Moss WR
7th – Looking at predraft rankings this is a stretch with ~5-10 wr’s ahead but, here’s where you have to do your own rankings, a solid #3wr. ??? pick: none.

Round: 8
(85) Team Burns - Giants D/ST D/ST
(86) Team mcinnis - Devin Hester WR
(87) Team Zielinski - Darren Sproles RB
(88) Buck Futt - Julius Jones RB
(89) Team Lebowski - Torry Holt WR
(90) Team dixon - Carson Palmer QB
(91) Team Schellbach - Kevin Walter WR
(92) Team Hesseltine - Ben Roethlisberger QB
(93) The Dudes - LeSean McCoy RB
(94) Team Amick - Chris Wells RB
** (95) Team Davidson - Steve Breaston WR
(96) Team Donaldson - Bobby Engram WR
8th – One injury away from having a huge year. ??? pick: Bobby Engram, he’s like the #3 wr on a bad team.

Round: 9
(97) Team Donaldson - Earnest Graham RB
** (98) Team Davidson - Matt Hasselbeck QB
(99) Team Amick - Donald Driver WR
(100) The Dudes - Chester Taylor RB
(101) Team Hesseltine - Jerricho Cotchery WR
(102) Team Schellbach - Titans D/ST D/ST
(103) Team dixon - Laveranues Coles WR
(104) Team Lebowski - Rashard Mendenhall RB
(105) Buck Futt - Lance Moore WR
(106) Team Zielinski - Fred Taylor RB
(107) Team mcinnis - Percy Harvin WR
(108) Team Burns - Kellen Winslow TE
9th – I actually think he could be the Rivers of 2009. Last year Rivers was going in the 8-9th round and was a top 5 qb at the end of the year. Hasselbeck may not be a top 5 but could do better than Rodgers and is someone I’m targeting this year. The other late round qb – Carson Palmer. ??? pick: the guy Palmer is throwing too – Coles, I think is a steal in this round. He can be a great possesion reciever and if Palmer stays healthy easily 1000 yds, so not really a questionable pick but more of a bravo pick, as in I should have taken him rather than Breaston.

Round: 10
(109) Team Burns - Eli Manning QB
(110) Team mcinnis - Michael Bush RB
(111) Team Zielinski - Ravens D/ST D/ST
(112) Buck Futt - Ted Ginn Jr. WR
(113) Team Lebowski - Donnie Avery WR
(114) Team dixon - Michael Crabtree WR
(115) Team Schellbach - Zach Miller TE
(116) Team Hesseltine - Le'Ron McClain RB
(117) The Dudes - Derrick Mason WR
(118) Team Amick - Eagles D/ST D/ST
** (119) Team Davidson - Fred Jackson RB (Part 2)
(120) Team Donaldson - Jerious Norwood RB
10th – Just adding depth. Key is picking players who if there’s an injury can step up. ??? pick: too late in the draft and I’m tired no more questionable picks.

Round: 11
(121) Team Donaldson - Dustin Keller TE
** (122) Team Davidson - Vikings D/ST D/ST
(123) Team Amick - Willis McGahee RB
(124) The Dudes - Jets D/ST D/ST
(125) Team Hesseltine - Kyle Orton QB
(126) Team Schellbach - David Garrard QB
(127) Team dixon - Domenik Hixon WR
(128) Team Lebowski - Tim Hightower RB
(129) Buck Futt - Trent Edwards QB
(130) Team Zielinski - Kevin Curtis WR
(131) Team mcinnis - Shonn Greene RB
(132) Team Burns - Patrick Crayton WR
11th – A solid D really late in the draft showing you don’t need to reach.

Round: 12
(133) Team Burns - Sammy Morris RB
(134) Team mcinnis - Miles Austin WR
(135) Team Zielinski - Ricky Williams RB
(136) Buck Futt - Chris Chambers WR
(137) Team Lebowski - Leon Washington RB
(138) Team dixon - Dolphins D/ST D/ST
(139) Team Schellbach - Muhsin Muhammad WR
(140) Team Hesseltine - Panthers D/ST D/ST
(141) The Dudes - Jason Campbell QB
(142) Team Amick - Justin Gage WR
** (143) Team Davidson - Ladell Betts RB
(144) Team Donaldson - Patriots D/ST D/ST
12th – See comment on Round 10.

Round: 13
(145) Team Donaldson - Steve Smith WR
** (146) Team Davidson - Brent Celek TE
(147) Team Amick - Jake Delhomme QB
(148) The Dudes - Joey Galloway WR
(149) Team Hesseltine - Kevin Boss TE
(150) Team Schellbach - Stephen Gostkowski K
(151) Team dixon - Ryan Longwell K
(152) Team Lebowski - Bears D/ST D/ST
(153) Buck Futt - Jeremy Maclin WR
(154) Team Zielinski - Laurence Maroney RB
(155) Team mcinnis - Chargers D/ST D/ST
(156) Team Burns - David Akers K
13th – No more LJ Smith and Philly likes dumping to the TE, he’s a reach but could be solid

Round: 14
(157) Team Burns - Shaun Hill QB
(158) Team mcinnis - Nate Kaeding K
(159) Team Zielinski - Mason Crosby K
(160) Buck Futt - Deion Branch WR
(161) Team Lebowski - T.J. Duckett RB
(162) Team dixon - Tony Scheffler TE
(163) Team Schellbach - Chad Pennington QB
(164) Team Hesseltine - Jason Elam K
(165) The Dudes - Jamaal Charles RB
(166) Team Amick - Jeremy Shockey TE
** (167) Team Davidson - Josh Morgan WR
(168) Team Donaldson - Neil Rackers K
14th – He’s on everyone’s sleeper list, and though I don’t agree he’ll be great, with no Crabtree might be a steal or at least trade bait.

Round: 15
(169) Team Donaldson - Greg Camarillo WR
** (170) Team Davidson - Visanthe Shiancoe TE
(171) Team Amick - Michael Jenkins WR
(172) The Dudes - John Kasay K
(173) Team Hesseltine - Joe Flacco QB
(174) Team Schellbach - Nick Folk K
(175) Team dixon - Rob Bironas K
(176) Team Lebowski - Limas Sweed WR
(177) Buck Futt - Heath Miller TE
(178) Team Zielinski - Robbie Gould K
(179) Team mcinnis - Mike Walker WR
(180) Team Burns - Redskins D/ST D/ST
15th – Hardly ever take 2 TE’s but with the uncertainty of celek here’s a dependable TE.

Round: 16
(181) Team Burns - Nate Washington WR
(182) Team mcinnis - Kevin Jones RB
(183) Team Zielinski - Justin Fargas RB
(184) Buck Futt - Garrett Hartley K
(185) Team Lebowski - Kris Brown K
(186) Team dixon - Sage Rosenfels QB
(187) Team Schellbach - Bo Scaife TE
(188) Team Hesseltine - Correll Buckhalter RB
(189) The Dudes - Vernon Davis TE
(190) Team Amick - Josh Scobee K
** (191) Team Davidson - Joe Nedney K
(192) Team Donaldson - Nate Burleson WR
16th – He’s a kicker and I never expect to keep 1 kicker all the way through, so random.

I am really surprised this year with the way non rb’s are going. In this draft of the top 12 picks, 2 were QB, 2 WR. Which is a bit odd, but if your picking number 1 by the time you get your second pick in a 12 team league I’d be betting that Brady/Brees/Peyton are gone and 5 wr’s too... (Fitz/Johnson/Moss/Johnson and 1 of Smith/Wayne/Jennings).

What this tells me is that the dreaded middle of the draft 5-8, could be a power spot this year, getting a top back/top wr/qb, and in the 3rd round still plenty of good rb’s left, sounds great to me.... Picking up Pierre/Grant/Smith is a possibility and as long as you don’t blow it in the middle rounds your team should be looking pretty good.

So if picking 5-8 is good then what’s bad. Well 1-4 your going to get a solid rb. 9-12 though, now your getting a good rb’s but with question marks. Is LT going to get back to old form? Can this rb duplicate his 2008 season (Deangelo/Slaton/Johnson). Then with the 2nd round you almost have to go wr, which means you’ll get a top guy but the problem with wr’s is unlike rb’s where you just have to worry about that player getting injured, you also have to worry about the qb.

Fitz is great until Warner gets hurt and Leinart steps in. same thing with Andre Johnson... anyone know who the back up qb is in Houston? I’m sure we’ll find out since Schaub can’t stay healthy... I think it’s mccown(Ed. Note - Or possibly the Sex Cannon, Rex Grossman)?? Point is much more risk with high end wr than high end rb.

Years before you could grab 2 rb’s and still get a top 10 wr for your pick in the 3rd round, this year...if you want a decent #1 you’r going to have to pick them in the 2nd round.

14 comments:

Saoirse said...

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.


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Trebor said...

forgot to mention....what is happenign with the Sportsaslife fantasy league? Will there be one this year? Will it changes sites yet again?

Napoleon in Rags said...

Now that's a fantasy post! In the real world you'd have to pay 8 bucks for a magazine to get info like this.

As for the fantasy league, I'm seriously leaning towards not playing this year. I'm open to convincing, but that's my feeling at the moment.

Trebor said...

come on

Anonymous said...

How can I repeat if there is no league?

B.

Anonymous said...

Yeah napoleon, come on. How will i be able to prove once again with my autodrafted team that computers are smarter than all of us (except for maybe B)?

CH

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